how to think about profitability for one-time purchase apps.
your app costs $20 one-time purchase. you post about it on HN, reddit, write blog posts. the question: which channels bring customers who actually buy?
much simpler than subscriptions - customer pays once, done. no retention to track.
LTV calculation:
LTV = app price × 85%
that's it. Apple's Small Business Program takes 15% if you're under $1M/year. so a $20 app = $17 LTV, $5 app = $4.25 LTV, $50 app = $42.50 LTV.
why pricing matters more than anything:
with subscriptions, retention is everything. with paid apps, pricing is everything.
$10 app (LTV $8.50) needs very cheap acquisition - you can only afford channels that cost <$3 per customer to hit 3:1 ratio. $30 app (LTV $25.50) has more room - can afford <$8.50 per customer. higher price = more options for customer acquisition.
the conversion question:
paid apps are simple: people see App Store page → buy or don't buy. no trial, no subscription decision. different channels bring different conversion rates.
example $25 Mac productivity app: HN brings 2,000 views and 180 downloads (9% conversion). blog/SEO brings 800 views and 120 downloads (15% conversion - people searching have higher intent). reddit brings 1,500 views and 75 downloads (5%). twitter brings 500 views and 15 downloads (3%).
blog traffic converts best because they're searching for a solution. twitter traffic converts worst because they're just casually browsing.
calculating profitability:
say you're posting about a $20 Mac utility.
HN Show HN takes 1 hour, gets 2,500 views, 220 downloads at 8.8% conversion. revenue: 220 × $17 = $3,740. that's $3,740/hr.
blog post takes 3 hours to write, gets 1,000 views over 6 months from SEO, 180 downloads at 18% conversion (high intent). revenue: 180 × $17 = $3,060. that's $1,020/hr but compounds over time.
reddit post takes 20 minutes, gets 800 views, 40 downloads at 5% conversion. revenue: 40 × $17 = $680. that's $2,040/hr.
twitter takes 30 minutes, gets 300 views, 9 downloads at 3% conversion. revenue: 9 × $17 = $153. that's $306/hr.
focus on HN, blog, and reddit. skip twitter.
price points and what works:
$5 apps: LTV $4.25. need very cheap acquisition. organic posts work, blog/SEO works, paid ads nearly impossible (would need <$1.50 CAC). tough to scale beyond organic.
$20 apps: LTV $17. decent room. organic channels work well, blog/SEO excellent, some paid channels might work. sweet spot for indie developers.
$50+ apps: LTV $42.50+. lots of room. can afford $15 CAC and still hit 3:1. paid ads become viable. but smaller market - fewer people pay $50 for an app.
improving profitability:
only one lever for paid apps: increase price. test it. $20 → $30 is 50% more revenue per customer. you'll lose some customers, but if you lose <33%, you win. many indie developers underprice.
optimize your App Store page. better screenshots, description, video = higher conversion. current 5% conversion → 7% conversion is 40% more revenue from same traffic. this is free money.
focus on high-conversion channels. blog converts at 15%, HN at 9%, reddit at 5%, twitter at 3%. even if HN brings more traffic, blog might bring more paying customers per hour invested.
volume vs conversion:
reddit brings 1,500 views at 5% conversion = 75 downloads. blog brings 800 views at 15% conversion = 120 downloads. blog wins despite half the traffic. don't optimize for traffic, optimize for paying customers.
real example:
developer posts about $25 Mac menu bar app. first 3 months: 380 downloads total, $6,460 revenue, no idea which channels worked.
next 3 months with ppid tracking: HN brought 1,800 views and 165 downloads (9.2%), $3,536 revenue. reddit brought 1,200 views and 60 downloads (5%), $1,275 revenue. blog brought 600 views and 90 downloads (15%), $1,913 revenue. twitter brought 400 views and 12 downloads (3%), $255 revenue.
insight: blog has highest conversion (people searching). HN brings most volume with decent conversion. reddit brings okay volume and conversion. twitter brings little.
changed approach: focused on writing SEO content (compounds), posted on HN every 2 months with updates, posted on reddit monthly (20 min, decent return), reduced twitter effort. result: downloads increased from 127/month to 165/month.
paid vs subscription tradeoff:
paid app pros: simpler (no retention tracking), better cash flow (immediate payment), customer owns it (can't cancel). paid app cons: lower total LTV (one-time $20 vs recurring $10/month for 12 months = $120), harder to scale (need very low CAC, mostly limited to organic).
when paid apps work:
good fit for utilities (clear one-time value), productivity tools (pay once use forever), creative apps (pro users), Mac apps (users expect paid software). works if you can get organic traffic (HN, reddit, SEO), can price high enough ($20+) to have room for acquisition, product has clear value (easy to explain in App Store page).
doesn't work if you can't get organic traffic, price too low (<$10), or unclear value proposition (low conversion).
common mistakes:
pricing too low - charging $5 when market would pay $20. test higher pricing. worst case you learn, best case 4× revenue.
optimizing for views instead of conversions - 1,000 low-intent views at 2% = 20 downloads. 500 high-intent views at 12% = 60 downloads. focus on high-intent traffic.
not testing price - charging $15 forever without testing $25. test for 1 month. if revenue doesn't drop >40%, higher price wins.
poor App Store page - vague screenshots, unclear value prop. conversion rate is free money: 5% → 8% = 60% more revenue.
tracking:
use ppid (custom product pages) to track downloads by source. takes 5 minutes to set up in App Store Connect. see attribution guide for how.
App Store Connect shows downloads by ppid, sales data, conversion rates. that's all you need. analytics platforms are overkill. attribution tools like Branch or AppsFlyer are way too expensive for one-time purchase - ppid is free and sufficient.
when to care:
don't obsess if you have <100 downloads (patterns unclear), first month (need time for SEO), or only posting in one channel.
start tracking when you have 100+ downloads, posting in multiple places regularly, want to optimize channel mix, or considering pricing changes.
next steps:
set up ppid tracking, post in 3-4 channels (HN, reddit, blog, twitter), track downloads by ppid after 1 month, calculate revenue per hour for each channel, focus on high-conversion channels, test higher pricing.
the goal: understand which channels bring paying customers, not just which brings traffic.
see also: App Store attribution for ppid setup, subscription app economics to compare models, SaaS economics to compare to web apps.