your app charges $5/month. you post about it on HN, reddit, twitter, write blog posts. the question: which channels bring customers who subscribe and stick around?
not "which brings most downloads" - but which brings paying customers worth having.
LTV (lifetime value):
how much one paying customer brings you over their lifetime. important: account for Apple's cut.
Small Business Program (<$1M revenue/year): Apple takes 15%, you keep 85%, most indie developers qualify.
calculation: monthly price × retention months × 85%. so $5/month × 10 months × 85% = $42.50 LTV.
why this matters:
two customers, same monthly price ($5). customer A subscribes for 6 months → revenue $5 × 6 × 85% = $25.50. customer B subscribes for 14 months → revenue $5 × 14 × 85% = $59.50. customer B is worth 2.3× more, but both paid the same monthly price. retention is everything.
different channels, different retention:
customers from different channels have different retention. example: HN customers stay 12 months avg → LTV $51, reddit customers stay 7 months → LTV $30, twitter customers stay 3 months → LTV $13, blog/SEO customers stay 14 months → LTV $59.50.
why? intent and fit. HN means they found your app solving specific problem (high intent). blog/SEO means they searched for solution and found you (best fit). twitter means they saw random mention (low intent, just trying it out).
calculating LTV from App Store Connect:
App Store Connect → Trends → Subscriptions → Retention shows subscribers from January, what % still active in February, March, etc.
example: 100 subscribers at month 0, 75 active at month 3 (25% churned), 55 active at month 6, 35 active at month 12, average ~8 months retention. LTV = $5/month × 8 months × 85% = $34.
the conversion funnel:
apps have multiple steps: download → trial → paid subscriber.
example: 1,000 downloads from HN, 400 start trial (40% conversion), 60 convert to paid (15% of trials), those 60 stay 12 months avg. LTV per paying customer: $5 × 12 × 85% = $51. but LTV per download: only 60/1,000 = 6% convert, so $3.06 per download.
you care about both: LTV per paying customer (profitability) and conversion rate (how many downloads become customers).
tracking by source:
use ppid (custom product pages) to track downloads by channel (App Store attribution guide).
then you can see patterns. HN: 500 downloads, 200 trials, 30 paid, 12 month retention, $51 LTV. reddit: 800 downloads, 240 trials, 24 paid, 7 month retention, $30 LTV. twitter: 400 downloads, 80 trials, 4 paid, 3 month retention, $13 LTV. blog: 200 downloads, 100 trials, 18 paid, 14 month retention, $59.50 LTV.
insights: HN has high trial rate (40%), decent conversion (15%), excellent retention. blog has very high trial rate (50%), good conversion (18%), best retention. reddit has okay trial rate (30%), okay conversion (10%), okay retention. twitter has low trial rate (20%), terrible conversion (5%), poor retention.
what this tells you:
focus on channels with high LTV, even if volume is lower. blog brings 200 downloads but 18 paying customers (LTV $59.50) = $1,071 total. twitter brings 400 downloads but 4 paying customers (LTV $13) = $52 total. blog wins despite 2× fewer downloads.
is your app profitable?
scenario: productivity app, $8/month. HN Show HN takes 1 hour effort, gets 600 downloads, 45 paid subscribers (7.5% conversion), 11 months retention avg, LTV $8 × 11 × 85% = $74.80, total value 45 × $74.80 = $3,366.
reddit post takes 20 min, gets 300 downloads, 18 paid subscribers (6% conversion), 6 months retention, LTV $8 × 6 × 85% = $40.80, total value 18 × $40.80 = $734.
twitter takes 30 min, gets 150 downloads, 3 paid subscribers (2% conversion), 4 months retention, LTV $8 × 4 × 85% = $27.20, total value 3 × $27.20 = $82.
time ROI: HN $3,366 value for 1 hour = $3,366/hr, reddit $734 for 20 min = $2,202/hr, twitter $82 for 30 min = $164/hr. focus on HN and reddit, skip twitter.
when retention differs by source:
HN subscriber (12 months) vs twitter subscriber (3 months): both pay $8/month, both "cost" $0 to acquire (organic), but HN subscriber worth 4× more. so even though both are "free," HN is dramatically better use of your time.
why retention differs: product-channel fit. HN users finding productivity app are actively looking for tools, are technical users (understand value quickly), have real problem app solves → good fit, long retention. twitter users saw casual mention, downloaded to try, might not have the problem → poor fit, short retention.
improving profitability:
increase retention: if you improve onboarding and retention goes 8 → 11 months, LTV goes $5 × 8 × 85% = $34 → $5 × 11 × 85% = $46.75 (37% increase). same downloads, more revenue. how: better onboarding (more trial users convert), fix cancellation reasons (talk to churned users), add value that increases stickiness.
focus on high-retention channels: shift time from twitter (3 month retention) to HN (12 month retention), same time investment but 4× better retention, 4× more value per customer.
optimize trial conversion: improve trial → paid conversion. example: 1,000 downloads, 40% trial conversion, paid conversion goes 10% → 15%, goes from 40 customers to 60 customers (50% more revenue from same downloads). test trial length (7 days vs 14 days), onboarding flow, pricing.
real example: photo vault app:
$5/month subscription. month 1-3 (no attribution tracking): 2,000 downloads total, 120 paid subscribers, average retention 7 months, average LTV $30.
month 4-6 (with ppid tracking): reddit /r/privacy brought 800 downloads, 60 paid, 10 months retention, LTV $42.50. HN brought 400 downloads, 35 paid, 13 months retention, LTV $55.25. twitter brought 600 downloads, 15 paid, 4 months retention, LTV $17. blog brought 200 downloads, 10 paid, 15 months retention, LTV $63.75.
insights: blog brings best retention (SEO traffic is high-intent), HN brings high-quality subscribers, reddit brings okay subscribers (decent fit), twitter brings low-quality subscribers.
changes made: focused on writing blog content (SEO compounds), posted on HN every 2 months with updates, posted on reddit weekly (20 min, okay return), stopped twitter (not worth effort).
result: more customers from high-LTV channels, average LTV increased from $30 to $45, better use of time.
when annual subscriptions:
if you offer yearly pricing: monthly $5/month, yearly $50/year (17% discount).
yearly subscribers pay upfront (better cash flow), commit for year (12 month retention minimum), often renew (good retention signal).
LTV calculation: year 1 is $50 × 85% = $42.50, if 60% renew year 2 that's $42.50 × 60% = $25.50, total LTV $68.
vs monthly subscriber doing 10 months: LTV $5 × 10 × 85% = $42.50. yearly subscriber has 1.6× LTV even with discount.
the Apple Small Business Program:
if you cross $1M revenue/year, Apple's cut changes: year 1 is 30% (you keep 70%), year 2+ is 15% for returning subscribers.
this changes LTV calculation. new customer after crossing $1M: year 1 is $5 × 12 × 70% = $42, year 2 is $5 × 12 × 85% = $51, total 2 years is $93.
most indie apps won't hit this (if you do, congratulations).
when to care about this:
don't obsess if: <50 paying customers (not enough data), first 3 months (too early for retention patterns), not posting in multiple channels.
start tracking when: 50+ paying customers (patterns emerge), posting regularly in different places, want to optimize where you spend time.
getting the data:
you need: attribution tracking (ppid) for which downloads came from where, retention data from App Store Connect, trial → paid conversion from your analytics.
setup: ppid tracking via App Store attribution (5 min), retention from App Store Connect → Subscriptions → Retention, wait 3-6 months for patterns. then you can see which channels bring high-LTV customers, where to focus posting effort, which channels waste your time.
common patterns:
typical retention by channel. highest: organic App Store search (solving specific problem), blog/SEO (high-intent search), HN (technical users, high intent). medium: reddit (depends on subreddit fit), YouTube reviews, word of mouth. lowest: viral/random mentions, generic social media, low-intent sources.
the time investment question:
even free channels cost time. example weekly effort: HN post 1 hour (write, engage), blog post 3 hours (write, publish), reddit posts 1 hour total (3× 20 min posts), twitter 1 hour (posts + engagement). total 6 hours/week.
if HN brings 8 customers/month (LTV $55) = $440, blog brings 3 customers/month (LTV $64) = $192 (but compounds), reddit brings 12 customers/month (LTV $43) = $516, twitter brings 2 customers/month (LTV $17) = $34.
best use: HN (1 hr), blog (3 hrs), reddit (1 hr), skip twitter, use saved hour for product.
tools you need:
App Store Connect (free) for subscription retention, downloads by ppid, trial conversion rates. ppid tracking (5 min setup) for custom product pages with unique URL per channel (attribution guide). spreadsheet (optional) to track channels over time and estimate LTV by source.
tools you don't need:
third-party attribution (Branch, AppsFlyer) costs $200-500/month, only worth if spending >$10k/month on paid ads, ppid is free and works fine for organic.
next steps:
set up ppid tracking → App Store attribution, wait 3-6 months for retention data, check App Store Connect retention reports, calculate LTV by channel (remember 85% after Apple cut), focus on channels with high-LTV customers.
the goal: understand which channels bring subscribers worth having, not just which brings most downloads.
see also: App Store attribution, SaaS economics, paid app economics