your SaaS charges $10/month. you get customers from HN, reddit, blog posts, organic search. the question: which channels bring customers who actually stick around and pay?
not "which brings most signups" - but which brings customers worth having.
LTV (lifetime value):
how much one customer pays you over their lifetime. simple calculation: monthly price × average months they stay. $10/month × 12 months = $120 LTV.
why retention matters more than price:
two scenarios, same monthly price ($10). customer A stays 6 months → LTV = $60. customer B stays 18 months → LTV = $180. scenario B is 3× more valuable, same monthly price. this is why retention is critical.
different channels, different retention:
customers from different channels have different retention. example (real pattern for many SaaS): HN customers stay 14 months avg → LTV $140, reddit customers stay 8 months → LTV $80, random twitter stays 3 months → LTV $30, organic search stays 16 months → LTV $160.
why the difference? intent and fit. HN brings high-intent users solving specific problem. organic search means they found you solving exact problem (best fit). twitter means random mention, trying it out (low intent).
calculating LTV from Stripe:
Stripe → Analytics → Retention shows customers who joined in January, how many still active in February, March, etc. example cohort: 50 customers at month 0, 40 still active at month 3 (80%), 30 at month 6 (60%), 20 at month 12 (40%), average ~10 months. LTV = $10/month × 10 months = $100.
simple sampling method: pick 20 random customers, check how long they stayed, average the durations, multiply by monthly price.
rough estimate from current customers: 100 active, been running 8 months, 85 still active. rough retention 85% = stayed ~11 months avg so far. note: this underestimates (some will stay longer), but gives ballpark.
tracking by source:
if you set up attribution (guide), you can see LTV by source.
example data after 6 months:
- hackernews: 12 customers, 14 months retention, $140 LTV
- organic: 8 customers, 16 months retention, $160 LTV
- reddit: 20 customers, 7 months retention, $70 LTV
- twitter: 5 customers, 3 months retention, $30 LTV
insights: organic and HN bring highest quality (best retention), reddit brings decent customers, twitter brings tire-kickers.
what to do: focus time on high-LTV channels. keep writing blog content (drives organic search), post on HN when you ship features, post on reddit occasionally, reduce twitter time.
is your product profitable per customer?
mostly organic scenario: HN post takes 1 hour, brings 10 customers at LTV $120 each = $1,200 total value. if you value time at $100/hr: ratio 12:1 (excellent). reddit post takes 20 min, brings 8 customers at LTV $70 = $560, time cost $33, ratio 17:1 (excellent). both highly profitable on your time.
some paid acquisition: google ads $500 spent, brings 12 customers at LTV $80 = $960 total, CAC $42 per customer, ratio 1.9:1 (losing money, need 3:1 minimum). profitable on organic, losing on paid. decision: stick to organic.
when retention differs by source:
you might think "both HN and twitter are free, so equal value" - wrong. HN customer worth $140 (14 month retention), twitter customer worth $30 (3 month retention). even though both cost $0 to acquire, HN is 4.7× more valuable. so you spend your time on HN, not twitter.
why retention differs: product-channel fit. HN users finding productivity app have high intent (browsing HN for tools), are technical users (your target), solving specific problem → good fit, long retention. random twitter users saw mention in passing, trying it out casually, might not have the problem → poor fit, short retention.
improving profitability:
two levers. first: increase retention (increase LTV). if you improve product and customers stay 10 → 14 months, LTV goes from $100 to $140 (40% increase), same acquisition effort but more revenue. how: fix why people cancel (talk to churned customers), add features that increase stickiness, improve onboarding (more activation = better retention).
second: focus on high-LTV channels. if you shift time from twitter (LTV $30) to HN (LTV $140), same time investment but 4.7× more value per customer.
real example: task management SaaS:
$8/month subscription. initial data (first 3 months, no attribution): 40 customers total, average retention 9 months, average LTV $72.
after adding attribution (next 3 months): blog (SEO) brought 8 customers with 15 months retention (LTV $120), HN brought 12 customers with 13 months retention (LTV $104), reddit /r/productivity brought 15 customers with 8 months retention (LTV $64), twitter brought 5 customers with 4 months retention (LTV $32).
insights: blog brings best customers (longest retention), HN brings high-quality, reddit brings okay customers, twitter brings low-quality.
changes made: kept writing blog posts (2 hours each, compounds via SEO), posted on HN every 2 months with updates, posted on reddit monthly (20 min effort, okay return), stopped posting on twitter (not worth the time).
result after 6 months: more customers from high-LTV channels, less time wasted on low-LTV channels, average LTV increased from $72 to $95.
when to care about this:
don't obsess if: <50 customers (not enough data for patterns), first 3 months (retention data too early), not actively acquiring customers.
start tracking when: 50+ customers (patterns start showing), posting in multiple places regularly, want to optimize where you spend time, considering paid acquisition.
getting the data:
you need: attribution tracking (which customers came from where), retention data (how long customers stay), LTV by source (combine the above).
setup: attribution via web attribution guide (30 min), retention via Stripe analytics (built-in), wait 3-6 months for retention patterns. then you can see which channels bring high-LTV customers, where to focus effort, which channels to stop wasting time on.
common patterns:
typical LTV by channel for many SaaS. highest: organic search (solving specific problem), word of mouth (referred by friend), HN (high-intent technical users). medium: reddit (depends on subreddit fit), blog referrals, direct (varies). lowest: random social mentions, viral spikes (low intent), paid ads (if poor targeting).
your product will vary, but organic search and referrals typically bring highest quality.
the time investment question:
even if all channels are "free" (no ad spend), they cost time. example time costs: HN Show HN takes 1 hour (write post, engage in comments), blog post takes 3 hours (research, write, edit), reddit post takes 20 minutes, twitter thread takes 30 minutes.
if you have 5 hours/week for growth and HN brings 8 customers (LTV $140) = $1,120 value, blog brings 5 customers (LTV $160) = $800 value (but compounds), reddit brings 12 customers (LTV $70) = $840 value, twitter brings 3 customers (LTV $30) = $90 value.
best use: 1 hour HN, 3 hours blog, 1 hour reddit, skip twitter.
tools you need:
Stripe (you have this) for customer data, retention cohorts, MRR tracking. attribution tracking (30 min setup) using UTM parameters saved to Stripe metadata (guide). spreadsheet (optional) to track LTV by source over time.
tools you don't need:
complex analytics platforms ($200+/month) are overkill for small SaaS, Stripe + spreadsheet works fine. business intelligence dashboards only make sense when >$100k MRR. start simple first.
next steps:
set up attribution tracking → attribution guide, wait 3-6 months for retention data, calculate LTV by source from Stripe, see which channels bring high-LTV customers, focus time on those channels.
the goal: understand which channels bring customers worth having, not just which brings most signups.
see also: attribution tracking, web attribution, app economics